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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
(Paperback, 2011)
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Format: Paperback
ISBN-10: 081297381X
ISBN-13: 9780812973815
Jan 2011
Publisher: Random House Inc
400 pages
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Language: English |
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Details
Synopsis
In this irreverent, yet scholarly work, a financial trader and philosopher contends that a deeper understanding of world events comes from paying close attention to impactful statistical improbabilities he refers to as "black swans," by studying outliers rather than norms. The essay blends anecdotes and fables with a survey of historical events, social sciences, philosophy, and statistics and illustrates the need for a world view that goes well beyond the often misplaced certainty found in the bell curve. Graphs and other visual aids throughout; includes a brief glossary and an extensive footnote section.
Industry Reviews
"Writing in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne....Mr. Taleb presents a range of answers...but it's clear that he remains slightly vexed by the world he describes so vividly. Then again, beatific serenity may not be the goal here.... As Mr. Taleb warns, certitude is likely to be found only in a fool's (bell-curve) paradise, where we choose the comfort of the 'precisely wrong' over the challenge of the 'broadly correct.' Beneath Mr. Taleb's blustery rhetoric lives a surprisingly humble soul who has chosen to follow a demanding and somewhat lonely path. I wonder how many of us will have the courage to join him."
(04/24/2007)
"THE BLACK SWAN is a richly enjoyable read with an important message."
(04/26/2007)
"[A] provocative macro-trend tome...."
(05/21/2007)
"Taleb's critique of our current pretensions to knowledge, and of our unwarranted faith in our understanding of things like risk and change, is both rigorous and convincing. And THE BLACK SWAN is a terrifically engaging book, sophisticated without being inaccessible."
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